Top 5 Questions for the Rest of the Season

The season took a left turn, but there's still much at stake. Plus, Obi dunked.

Good morning! First things first: as I noted last week, I’m taking a few days off this week, but that doesn’t mean this newsletter won’t be hitting your inbox every day.

• Monday (today): Normal newsletter.

• Tuesday - Wednesday: A two-part guest column from a very special scribe whose work I’ve long admired, plus any pertinent news and the next entrant into the #NYK75

• Thursday - Friday: Abbreviated editions featuring News & Notes, plus a game preview for the weekend’s games

And then the following Monday, we’ll get back to normal. Or rather, a new normal, as I’ll explore more in today’s column. But first…

🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 At least one Knick can walk away from this season claiming he won something.

Obi Toppin became the third Knick to win the NBA’s Slam Dunk Contest on Saturday night, joining 3-time champ Nate Robinson (2006, 2009 & 2010) and Kenny “Sky” Walker, who won it back in 1989. Hopefully this is where the comps between Walker (another athletic big picked in the top 10 pick who ultimately disappointed as a pro) and Toppin can begin to end, and Obi can use this win as a springboard to bigger and better things in the real games to come.

The contest itself was more than a little underwhelming, with Toppin beating out the Warriors' Juan Toscano-Anderson in the final round after Cole Anthony and Jalen Green were dispatched in the prelims. Still, it’s a nice trophy for the former Dayton Flyer to put on his mantle, made extra special by the fact that it was achieved “in his second home” as he said afterwards.

Here’s the full video of all of his exploits:

NBA @NBA

Obi Toppin had some creative dunks to become the #ATTSlamDunk Champion! 🏆 #StateFarmSaturday #NBAAllStar

🏀 Actually, make it two Knicks who came away winners over the weekend, as New York’s 2021 draft & stash stud Rokas Jokubaitis scored 12, including nine clutch points in the fourth quarter, to help FC Barcelona defeat Real Madrid and win the Copa Del Rey trophy in Spain.

#CopaACB @ACBCOM

🔥 BOOOOOOOOOOOM, Rokas Jokubaitis ¡Cómo está el partido! Para morderse las uñas. 📺 @vamos #CopaACB #ListosParaRomperla

It is still unclear when Jokubaitis plans to come overseas, but the opinion seems to be that if he were a prospect in this year’s draft class, he’d be taken somewhere around the late lottery.

🏀 Marc Stein is the latest NBA scribe to chime in on the increasingly warming seat of Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau, noting in his newsletter that “the first rumbles I heard about Thibodeau's job potentially being in jeopardy if the Knicks fail to reach the playoff play-in round in the East” came shortly after the trade deadline, during which he said the Knicks tried to unload just about any veteran on the roster.

Much more on this below…

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5 Questions for the Rest of the Season

Deep breath…

Here we go:

1. Will the Knicks make the Playoffs?

I was going to title this “at what point will the Knicks be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention?” but remembered that I’m supposed to be one of the more positive folks covering this team, so I thought better of it.

At the moment, the two major NBA Playoff probability tracking sites - ESPN’s Basketball Power Index and Basketball Reference - give the Knicks slightly more than a snowball’s chance in hell of making the postseason.

According to ESPN, New York has a 0.9 percent chance to make the playoffs and is projected to finish with a 34-48 record. Basketball Reference is slightly more optimistic, with a 1.5 percent chance and a projected win total of 35 wins. They also go the extra mile of projecting play-in odds, for which they give the Knicks a 5.5 percent chance at the 10th seed, a 1.4 percent chance at the 9th seed, and a 0.3 percent chance at the 8th seed.

While anything is certainly possible, especially with Derrick Rose and RJ Barrett possibly returning immediately after the break, I have no reason to disagree with these odds. Over the last 12 weeks - a span of 39 games - the Knicks have just four wins over teams that currently have winning records. Two of those wins (against Boston at home and versus Minnesota missing all of their starters) came when those teams were under .500.

Notably, six of New York’s next eight games come against teams that not only have a winning record, but one of the 10 best marks in the league. The Clippers, who they play a week after returning from the break, could be over .500 by then, and then they go into Sacramento on the second night of a back to back.

Things lighten up a bit after that, but even so, New York only plays two teams the rest of the season that currently have a worse record than them: Detroit on March 27 and Orlando on April 3, both of which are on the road. Add it all up, and according to Tankathon, the Knicks have the 4th hardest remaining schedule. So as you can see, the much better question is…

2. How high can New York get in the lottery?

At the moment, the Knicks are tied with the Blazer for the 9th spot:

As you can see, they’re two games “behind” the Pelicans (who are absolutely going for the play-in following their deadline trade for CJ McCollum) and the Spurs, who traded Derrick White but have a positive net rating and are 19-23 since their 4-13 start.

The Kings are, well…the Kings, and despite their trade for Domantas Sabonis, have the 9th hardest schedule remaining. The real bright spot here is the Pacers, who have the easiest remaining schedule in the league, with six games remaining against the bottom four teams, plus games against the Kings, Blazers and Wizards.

Best guess: something between the 6th and 8th worst record is the most likely outcome. If that’s where the Knicks land, they’ll have between a 37 and 25 percent chance at a top-four pick, and between a nine and six percent chance at the first overall selection.

That brings us to…

3. How’s the Draft looking?

We’re not at the Thibodeau question yet, but suffice it to say, if and when the Knicks make their change from Thibs to Johnnie Bryant, it would seem to increase the likelihood that the Knicks actually keep their draft pick as opposed to trading it for a player who will help them win immediately¹. Shifting to Bryant and then trading a vet or two allows them to reset the clock a bit, so making the pick would fit in with that plan.

(I could also see a scenario where a disagreement over what to do with this pick could further push the front office’s hand towards a Thibodeau ouster, although the lottery isn’t until May 17, which is more than a month after the season. One would think any Thibs decision will come immediately after the season ends.)

All of this depends on what choice they end up with though. On the downside, there is no singular franchise-changing prospect in this draft. Consensus at the moment seems to be that the top pick in this class might not have gone in the top four last year, as there is no one here who profiles as eventually becoming a top guy on a good team. That said, there is talent at the top.

This is Tankathon’s board, which I’m not sure is reflective of where things actually stand, but it’s close enough. Holmgren is the safest pick - a true rim-protecting, stretch-five that every team would love to have. You’ll notice the almost comically low weight (not a misprint) so he’s got a ways to go to put on some pounds, but on the bright side, he’s tough as nails, so this isn’t a KP redux.

Jabari Smith is the likeliest top pick at the moment, as he’s got the best shot to develop into a super-sized, shot-creating, floor-spacing wing. Banchero is slightly less exciting, as he’s a big who can’t really shoot, doesn’t protect the rim and has concerns guarding the perimeter (sound familiar?).

Ivey is the guy who already has many Knicks fans salivating. Perhaps the most exciting player in college basketball, Ivey isn’t a point guard but still draws comps to Ja Morant because of how he plays and his freakish athleticism. It doesn’t take long to see why he’s such a tempting pick.

Draft Dummies @DraftDummies

Jaden Ivey decides to get on the scoreboard, and does it with a dunk of the year candidate Unbelieveable athlete

After Ivey, Duke’s AJ Griffin is the sort of big wing that every team needs. There’s a ceiling there that will get him taken in the top five. Johnny Davis is the surprise of the year and might be the best player in college ball, but his star upside is more limited. The draft’s mystery man is Shaedon Sharpe, who recently reclassified but we still don’t know if he’ll enter this class. He was the No. 1 player on early 2023 boards, but there’s just so little high level tape on him that a team will be taking their life in their hands with that pick, relying so much on individual workouts that Sharpe is certain to blow out of the water².

Last but certainly not least, TyTy Washington is arguably the best point guard prospect on the board, is slated to go in the 8-10 range, and wouldn’t you know it, he goes to Kentucky. He’s a quirky prospect in that he’s everything you want in a point guard except for the traits most commonly linked to high level points guards in the game today: high-level athleticism, an elite first step, and an ability to get all the way to the rim with ease (aka, all the traits Tyrese Haliburton was missing that caused the Knicks to pass on him two years ago. We’ll see if they make the same mistake twice).

Even with Washington as a reasonable fall-back option if the Knicks stay put or slide back from their likely lottery position, this is the sort of draft where you’d really like to get into the top four or five, and really the top three, as I have a funny feeling the Holmgren / Smith / Ivey trio starts to separate themselves as we move closer to draft night.

Of course, who the Knicks wind up drafting could depend a lot on whether any of the young players pop over the remainder of the season, which leads us to…

4. What’s the rotation look like over the final 23 games?

Again, we’re not at the Thibodeau question yet, but his presence and fingerprints obviously loom large here. Thibs post-Brooklyn quotes about not handing out unearned minutes sounded ominous, but he also talked up the youth, and he could just mean “the young guys who work the hardest will get the most time.” That could also be wildly optimistic.

I could see this playing out a number of ways…

Glass half empty: We see the same starting lineup and rotation trotted out in the first post-deadline game.

Glass cracked in half with shards impaling major bodily arteries: With Rose and RJ back, Thibs tightens the rotation for a final play-in push, keeps the same starting five, and limits the bench to Rose, Burks, Grimes, and a finally healthy Nerlens Noel. Pass the bleach.

Glass half full: Walker decides to take care of his knee issues with a clean-up procedure that will keep him out for the rest of the season. Alec Burks is first up on the merry-go-round of rest days for vets, and the 10-man rotation consists of Quickley, Fournier, Barrett, Randle and Mitch starting, with Rose, Grimes, Cam, Obi and Noel or Taj off the bench. Deuce gets his shot when Rose shuts it down after a few weeks, and Obi moves into the starting five when Randle calls it a season a couple weeks after that.

Glass overflowing: Walker is shut down, Burks is shut down, Noel is (officially) shut down, Taj is shut down, and we begin to see Fournier and Randle alternating rest days (Fournier goes first). Deuce starts, alongside Barrett, Grimes, Randle and Mitch, with Rose, IQ, Reddish, Obi and Jericho Simms off the bench. Rose will begin to take ample rest days as well, during which IQ will run the backup groups. Randle and Fournier get shut down for good once the team is mathematically eliminated, which I could see happening on the Hornets/Heat/Pistons road trip that starts with about three weeks to go in the regular season.

Best Guess: We see something between glass half full and glass half empty. Given Thibodeau’s comments about everything being on the table and the recent leaks about the coach potentially being on thin ice, it feels like we’re in store for something bold coming out of the break, with the simplest and most obvious solution being Walker leaving the rotation and Quickley promoted to the starting point guard.

But that alone wouldn’t create enough room in the rotation for both Cam and Obi (Grimes isn’t going anywhere), assuming both Barrett and Rose are back. If they came out of the gate and either Reddish or Toppin were DNP-CD’s, it would essentially amount to Thibs writing “FIRE ME” on his practice high tops and showing up to games in a track suit (the image of which is positively delightful).

That’s why I have a hard time believing Burks will still be in the rotation when we come back, although two other possibilities exist: Thibs doing something he absolutely hates and going to an 11-man rotation in a final attempt to show the front office he’s willing to adjust, or they come up with bogus injuries for the kids as a way to hold off the inevitable for that much longer.

As an aside, literally none of the above would shock me.

5. What Now?

The obvious first domino to watch is Thibodeau, against whom the opening salvo has already been fired. Is it possible for him to come back from the brink and start next season as the head coach? Sure…but what line of thinking would the front office need to have to make that a reality?

Clearly they already have misgivings about his performance this season, and those misgivings have reached James Dolan’s ear. For as much as Leon Rose and the organization would take a PR hit if they fired the hand-picked coach (always a major concern at the Garden, like it or not), the noise would be drowned out and short-lived if it was done in the midst of play-in excitement around the league. They may also convince Thibs to “step aside” as coach and elevate him to an “advisory role,³” where he could continue to collect the final guaranteed year of his contract⁴ under the guise of continued employment. Meanwhile, the team elevates Johnnie Bryant into the role (I’m guessing) he’s been promised since the day he was hired.

On the flip side, not moving on from Thibs after the season opens you up to a whole host of messiness. If next season starts off poorly, either on the court, behind the scenes, or both, firing Thibs in-season would be so much more of a disaster. Even if they had Bryant waiting in the wings and ready to go, the PR hit would be massive. Worse would be if Thibs actually changed his ways and agreed to pivot to more of a youth movement, but now that Wes has activated Meddlesome Dolan, you run the risk of Jimmy Two Chimes getting aggravated at the first three-game losing streak and demanding they do what they hinted at doing at the end of this season.

There’s also the added issue of Leon Rose having already given Thibodeau a say in personnel matters. It’s not like they can demote him to the kiddie table, which means he’ll continue to have input on the draft, trades and free agency. Giving a guy that sort of power who you’re not fully sold on as a part of your future is a terrible idea.

That leads us directly to the other major question I have under this subheading: do the Knicks explore trading Julius Randle this summer? Again, Thibs’ presence looms large; if he is kept on, you can bet he’ll want Randle here or traded for a star.

There will be more landing spots for Julius than there were at the deadline. The most fun and (semi) realistic trades I can think of:

Washington: They need to make a splash with Bradley Beal potentially having a foot out the door. Kuzma and KCP gets it done salary-wise, and the Wiz can trade their 2022 1st rounder after draft night. Perhaps the Knicks try to package this pick with their own to move up a few spots into the top four.

Portland: Another potentially desperate team looking to appease their shooting guard, the Blazers are now way under the cap, so an Anfernee Simons sign and trade for Randle wouldn’t run into base year compensation issues (more on those in a bit).

Lakers: After draft night, the Lakers are allowed to trade both their 2027 and 2029 first round picks. Russ and those picks (and maybe a swap in 2028) works for Randle and Fournier. The big questions: for LA, could LeBron and AD get Julius to buy back into the same role he had in New Orleans, and theoretically gun for 6th Man of the Year on a contender; for the Knicks, what do you do with Russ? Buy him out? John Wall him until a desperate team with a ton of tradable salary comes calling? Or do you let him play?

Dallas: Base year compensation issues make a Jalen Brunson sign and trade tricky because while his new salary would count fully against the cap for the Knick, only half of it would count as outgoing salary for the Mavs. Put much simpler: it could work, but the Knicks would need to take back Dwight Powell. Brunson could then sign the reported Lonzo Ball contract he wants (four years, $84 million) as long as it started low with the maximum eight percent raises. And finally, for some real fun…

New Orleans: Zion asks out, wants the Knicks, and New York moves up in the lottery to get a pick high enough to send back to the Pelicans to make this worth their while. The Knicks could take back the expiring salary of Larry Nance Jr to make the money work.

That’s all I got. After a year and change of relative stability, everything is officially back up in the air. Only 23 games remain in a lost season, but so much of the future of the franchise is at stake. What could be more fun?

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. Obviously all bets are off if the right star demands a trade after the season and the Knicks are in the running, but given how things have been going lately, I’m not holding my breath.

2. Kevin Knox says hi from Atlanta.

3. I’m picturing Thibs having a desk in a broom closet in the bowels of MSG, right next to Steve Mills. They must share a lone red stapler.

4. I’m leaning on Ian Begley’s recent reporting that “at least the first three years” of Thibs contract are guaranteed.