What's at Stake?

With just over a month to go in the regular season, let's set the stage for the Knicks' home stretch

Good morning! For those who may have missed it, news broke over the weekend that the Knicks plan to sign PJ Tucker to a 10-day deal. Because of CBA ramifications, they didn’t actually put pen to paper yet, and will likely do so today. I wouldn’t expect Tucker to be a member of the healthy rotation, but it seems as if they value his locker room presence more than anything he can still do on the court.

In other news, the Knicks play basketball tonight after getting the weekend off. Tipoff in Sacramento is at 10:30, and the game will be broadcast on NBA TV. The Knicks are healthy besides Jalen Brunson, while the Kings will be without Domantas Sabonis and possibly Malik Monk, who sat out last night. I’ll be up late for anyone who wants to say hi at halftime.

What's at Stake?

A funny thing happens whenever a new NBA season rolls around.

Even before we finish all of the Halloween candy, we think we know it all.

And then the same thing happens before Christmas. And before Valentine’s Day. And before St. Patty’s.

Around a handful of times within every 82-game marathon, we’re pretty sure we have it all figured out, only to later realize that those epiphanies were short lived, sojourning through our minds until the next ah-ha moment comes to pass.

This is true of almost every team in every campaign, but it’s been especially true of the 2024-25 New York Knicks. Among the things we thought we knew with certainty at various points this season:

• They’ll never survive their lack of depth

• Mikal Bridges’ point-of-attack defense is their fatal flaw

• Karl-Anthony Towns definitely works best at center

• Just wait until Mitch gets back!

• The offense is an all-time powerhouse

• OG Anunoby has a real case as their third All-Star

• On second thought, it’s Mikal Bridges

• On third thought, it’s Josh Hart

• Josh Hart’s crisis of shooting confidence is their fatal flaw

• The defense is irreparably broken

• The offense is irreparably broken

• They’ll never beat a great team, and currently…

• They don’t have a chance without Jalen Brunson

A few of these realizations still ring true, or at least as true as something can be until its proven false. Ultimately, as many of the prevalent narratives surrounding New York have begun to collide into one another to form a few daunting Super Narratives, it’s probably as good a time as any to remember the wise words of Bill Parcells:

You are what your record says you are.

For the moment, that means the 40-23 Knicks shouldn’t pack up their bags and concede the rest of the season quite yet. If they finish a half game above .500 the rest of the way, they’ll win 50 games for only the third time in 25 years, which would mark the first time in 30 years they’ve won 50 in consecutive seasons. They’re also 4.5 games clear of hosting a playoff series for the second straight season. Most importantly of all, their superstar seems to have avoided a serious injury after a scary moment on Thursday night.

But for many fans, even that dose of perspective won’t be enough to instill confidence in a team that has suddenly dropped three straight, faltering in crunch time for each one.

With that in mind, here are the top five things I’m thinking, fearing, hoping and pondering over the final 19 games of the regular season:

5. Go Big or Go Home

We waited 61 games and a little over a quarter and a half for it to happen, but on Thursday night, we finally got the twin towers pairing many have been dreaming of since training camp.

With 5:02 remaining in the first half, Mitchell Robinson entered the game to share the court with Karl-Anthony Towns. Over the ensuing two minutes and 15 seconds, the Knicks outscored the Lakers 9-4. The first basket was an OG Anunoby transition bucket after LA gambled for a steal and lost. After a few Jalen Brunson free throws, the second basket was a wide-open Anunoby three after the Lakers fell asleep on the coverage, perhaps distracted by all that white, orange and blue size on the court at once:

The third was another transition bucket, this one following a picture perfect Mitchell Robinson hedge & recover followed by Anunoby’s mere presence dislodging the ball from the grasp of the boy wonder, leading to a Mikal Bridges transition finish:

Unfortunately, that’s all we got with Mitch sitting out the second night of a back to back against the Clippers.

It’s impossible to know at this point how much Thibs plans to lean into the double big lineup, especially with Robinson still not all the way back in his recovery from offseason surgery, but for a Knicks team searching for answers to questions in a variety of categories, it’s hard to think this isn’t a stone worth turning over a few dozen more times down the stretch of the season.

4. Building Bridges

It certainly wasn’t a coincidence that Mikal Bridges had one of his most efficient, aggressive and overall productive outings of the season in the first game following Jalen Brunson’s injury.

(For those who may have been busy on New Year’s Day, I’ll remind you that in the only other game Brunson missed this season, Bridges went for 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting in a 119-103 win against the Utah Jazz).

DJ Zullo did an exceptional job breaking down Mikal’s outing against the Clippers, and I strongly encourage everyone to watch. In short, the Knicks ran several plays tailor made for Bridges’ skill set that helped him get going both on and off the ball. DJ also highlighted his limitations as a playmaker due to an occasionally loose dribble and penchant for predetermined reads. He was more aggressive, but not aggressive enough for a top option on a good offense.

Bridges doesn’t need to be that, not with the talent he’s surrounded with, but he does need to tap into the Brooklyn version of himself more often.

A more important question, assuming we get more strong play from Mikal in the coming weeks, is whether he can bottle up whatever he finds and use it when his point guard returns to the lineup.

3. Getting Defensive

It reeks of desperation that I’m boasting about New York’s 110.7 defensive rating over the last three games, but here we are. That’s what a borderline bottom-10 defense will do to you over the course of a season.

The thing is, they’ve achieved this minor miracle with their opponents shooting exactly league average from deep over the three games, so it’s not like this has been the product of good shooting luck¹.

(Don’t remind me that the Knicks have themselves hit just 24.5 percent of their threes over the same timeframe - worst in the league by a comfortable margin. Considering they were right there in all of these games down the stretch, it’s hard not to wonder if we’re overreacting to nothing more than an ill-timed shooting slump. But I digress…)

The eye test says there’s something real going on here, even if the lowlights are still very low. We’ve yet to get a full 48 minutes of defensive dominance from this group, but you’ve got a better chance of seeing Godot than witnessing as much.

If, however, the offense can get back to its early season levels of success, what we’re getting from them on defense lately might be more than enough.

Speaking of their offensive issues…

2. Ya’ Gotta Have Hart?

You wanna laugh?

Of the nine Knicks who have played at least 100 minutes since the All-Star break, guess which one has the highest on-court offensive rating?

That’s right, although even being the best on the team in this particular department shouldn’t have Josh Hart doing victory laps. His individual 108.7 offensive rating may be an improvement over the team’s overall number of 106.3, but both numbers rank among the bottom six teams in the NBA since the break.

This isn’t all on Hart, as their 100.8 offensive rating in the 174 minutes Josh hasn’t played clearly shows. Still, there is a sense right now that Hart is letting opposing defenses off easy because of his shooting struggles from deep. On the bright side, he has attempted 14 threes in the last three games after taking just four in the previous four, but he has become such an afterthought for opposing defenses that guarding him with a center is now the default setting, and rarely is a defender near him when he’s behind the arc away from the action.

From an individual standpoint, besides Jalen Brunson simply getting back on the court, there is no single bigger swing factor between now and the playoffs than Hart regaining his confidence from long range.

This Josh Hart conundrum leads perfectly to the most pressing matter hovering over the final five weeks of the season…

1. The Starting Five

There are no shortage of questions regarding a unit that we won’t see together for at least a few weeks due to Jalen Brunson’s ankle injury.

How much time will they get to gel? What happens if they don’t show signs of improved play in those limited minutes? Would Thibs change the starting lineup before the playoffs? If so, who sits and who starts?

As Jeremy and I discussed on today’s pod, we now have a robust sample size of a starting unit that simply isn’t functioning like that of a winning team, let alone a contending one. Since Christmas, the starters have played 20 games and 410 minutes together. In that time, they’ve been outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions. They have a defensive rating of 116.7 which would rank 25th in the league. Perhaps more distressing, their 114.4 offensive rating grades out as barely league average.

The starters need to be better on both sides of the ball to make a real run, but the original formula is still worth striving for: an elite offense supported by a better than average defense. If that remains the goal, it’s hard to diagnose which current issue looms largest. Are Josh Hart’s shooting yips the biggest culprit, as the tape of many 4-on-5 offensive possessions suggests? Does Mikal Bridges need to get more reps and designed plays with the ball, even when Brunson returns? Can OG Anunoby find some consistency, and does he need more shots to be his best self on defense? Does Karl-Anthony Towns need to do more dirty work on the block, especially against the switchiest defenses in the league?

And if all that wasn’t enough, we have to ask whether it will be easier or harder to figure out the answers to the above questions without the normal captain of their ship? Even if they make progress, what happens once he comes back?

Of all the uncertainties surrounding the team right now, this is first with a bullet.

Fix the first five, and you give yourself a fighting chance.

Everything else flows from there.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

1. We can extend the positive defensive data to the last six games, over which time New York has given up 110.5 points per 100 possessions, but all three of the Sixers, Grizzlies and Heat shot abysmally from long range in those Knick wins.