Good morning! No, Donovan Mitchell still isn’t a Knick, but some of New York’s existing young players played a basketball game with real stakes yesterday. More on that shortly, but first the news, and a reminder to anyone not yet fully subscribed: no time like the present!
✍️ News & Notes 🗣
🏀 There was no substantive Donovan Mitchell news over weekend, other than a few reports suggesting we probably shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for a deal to go down. Both Woj and SNY’s Ian Begley intimated that a possible Mitchell trade is weeks, and not days, away from happening. Begley also added in a video report (see the below tweet) that he thought “a deal will eventually get done” between the Knicks and Jazz, but also that Utah is still figuring out “what would other teams offer, particularly Miami, [and] maybe Brooklyn.”
In addition, Begley reported on an initial ask that Utah made which was rebuffed by the Knicks. It included RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson and at least three first round picks.
There was also a report from an unverified Jazz account which states that there is some discrepancy over pick compensation at the moment. According to that report, Utah is demanding all four of New York’s own firsts without any protections, while New York is offering two of their own unprotected firsts plus all four of the first rounders they are owed from other teams.
If true (and it passes the smell test for me), you’d think that an eventual compromise of three of New York’s own firsts, possibly with some incredibly light protections in one of the years, could be reached. There would still be more to sort out on the pick end of things (i.e., how many of the protected picks via other teams would then be included, would there be swaps, what would the years of conveyance be on New York’s picks, what happens if a pick falls within the protected range if there are any protections, etc, etc), and that’s before we even get to the players. The most recent reports still peg Quentin Grimes as a player of interest for Utah, but we don’t know much else.
More on this as it comes.
🏀 Adding to the intrigue, Mr. Mitchell himself threw out the first pitch at Saturday’s Brooklyn Cyclones minor league game. The appearance was in conjunction with a previously planned Mitchell bobblehead giveaway. He also took batting practice before the game:
Afterwards, Mitchell predictably did not want to answer any basketball-related questions, but it was still quite the sight to see him donning the uniform of a New York team, even if it isn’t in the sport he gets paid to play.
Game Recap: Knicks 77, Blazers 85
Thanks to their outstanding play over the first four games at Las Vegas, the Knicks found themselves in the Summer League Championship Game yesterday afternoon with a chance to avenge their only loss of the tournament against Portland. In a game that started off ugly for both teams, with more combined turnovers (15) in the first quarter than either team had points, the Blazers shot and rebounded their way to an 11-point halftime lead.
The third quarter was more of the same, as Portland’s athletic, scrappy defense made an effort to put the clamps on Quentin Grimes and dare other Knicks to beat them. Grimes grinded his way to 19 points but on 5-of-16 shooting, hitting 2-of-11 from deep, while New York’s other perimeter players combined to hit just 10-of-33 from the field. After going down by 15 early in the fourth, the Knicks used an 8-0 run to briefly get back into it, but that was as close as they’d get until the final seconds. This one was never really in doubt.
💫 Stars of Sumer League 💫
⭐️Deuce McBride: McBride didn’t have the perfect summer league, but he ended it as the only player in Vegas to average at least five assists and two made 3-pointers per game, hitting both numbers on the nose. The book on Deuce is simple: if the shot becomes consistently reliable, he’s probably an NBA rotation player. If not, his path becomes a little dicier.
Well, he hit 35.7 percent from long range over the last 10 days, and the shot looks pretty good:
Throw in the fact that he averaged a respectable 16.8 points and made half of his attempts overall, and perhaps there’s a spot for McBride in New York’s 2022-23 rotation after all is said and done.
⭐️⭐️Jericho Sims: Sims went 4-of-5 yesterday, equalling his 80 percent field goal percentage for the entire 10 days in Vegas. That’s the highest figure of anyone who took more than five shots per game, and yet it was his one miss that raised my eyebrows the most:
Was it an ugly brick? Yeah, but seeing this skill set in that package will never get old. Sims probably tops out as a really good rim running backup five, but he did enough over these five games to make me pay extra attention any time he checks into a game this season. There’s definitely more to Sims than meets the eye. It’s just a question of whether he can ever put it all together at the next level.
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Quentin Grimes: The only bummer about Grimes outstanding Summer League performance was his shooting splits: 41.4 percent overall, 30.9 percent from deep, and 68.6 percent from the line.
Count me as unbothered. Grimes was essentially tasked with running New York’s offense, and was so successful in that endeavor that the Blazers adopted an “anyone but Grimes” mantra in the championship game. The attention he received resulted in a lot of difficult looks yesterday, but aside from that and a cold-shooting first half of Game 1, his stroke behind the line was fine. Inside the arc, the combination of shot-making, play-making and foul-drawing was eye-opening to say the least.
The fact that we’re even talking about Grimes as a potential sticking point in an effort to acquire Donovan Freaking Mitchell is not only a testament to him, but to the front office who got him at 25.
Wherever he winds up playing next year, he should be on everyone’s radar across the league as one of the up-and-coming complementary players who will give opponents headaches for years to come. His final Vegas numbers: 22.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 11.0 attempted threes and 7.0 attempts from the line.
Kudos to Q for being the best part of summer league, and no one else was particularly close.
Picking a Path
It seems that with enough time to reflect on the news that Donovan Mitchell can be had, the fan base has settled into 3 camps:
Get Mitchell at any cost. Anything less would be a failure.
Get Mitchell, even if we have to overpay a little, but don’t give up the farm.
Get Mitchell, but only if the Knicks can do it on their terms.
It is virtually impossible to see Ainge accepting the offers I’ve noticed from people in this last camp - something like one or maybe two of New York’s own firsts and none of the good young players.
Referring to folks in Camp No. 3, I appreciate the notion of bypassing a Mitchell overpay and instead waiting for the next star to demand a trade even if, as I laid out at the end of last week, there is no obvious player who looks like the one to do so. This is the NBA. Guys get antsy. It happens.
That said, I wonder if some are being a bit dismissive of the benefits of getting Mitchell before next season. Those benefits start with the domino effect of his presence. Stars tend to demand trades to teams that have other stars. In this case, Mitchell has not demanded a trade, but New York is comfortable giving up such a haul to bring him in in part because of their confidence he will want to remain in New York for the long term. As a 25-year-old with still untapped upside, his presence will likely move the needle when it comes to New York’s appeal to that next star going on the market.
I think, in our collective fear of getting fleeced by Danny Ainge, we may be downplaying the significance of this trifecta of benefits (Mitchell’s age, love of New York, and attraction to other stars). On top of all that, Donovan is a ridiculously good offensive player, which is where the age comes in as well. A common recent talking point is that because Mitchell is a sub-elite level star right now, he’ll always remain on that secondary plane. Should we be so sure that’s the case tough? Consistently rising usage, efficiency and playmaking numbers would beg to differ:
This isn’t to say Mitchell will ever impact the game on the level of a top-five player. But there is a ceiling in play we probably haven’t seen yet, and the fact that he just had his best statistical season with perhaps his weakest supporting cast in several years is notable.
The obvious counter to all of this, as I have been harping on, is that New York may not have enough left after the Mitchell trade to make that next trade. It is a salient point, and it’s why no one should have an issue with Leon Rose attempting to dig in his heels a bit on this negotiation. As I went through in detail on Thursday, Mitchell’s market is arguably as diminished as you’d ever expect to find when a team opens the bidding on a young, 3-time All-Star with three years of team control remaining. There is also the fact that Ainge clearly wants this done before the season, partially to avoid distractions, partially to lean fully into the tank, and partially to give his 34-year-old head coach a clean slate from which to build a culture.
For all those reasons, yes, Leon should play a little hardball. Assuming he can have some modicum of success in that effort, whether that means keeping one of New York’s own firsts, or holding onto two or even three of Obi, IQ and Grimes, then I’m not sure why there should be any hesitation to acquire Mitchell.
Aside from “what will New York have left over?” the most popular arguments I’ve seen against a trade have to do with the timing and the ceiling. The second of these falls flat for the simple reason that we shouldn’t judge a deal like this by what happens in the next season or two. The assumption is that Mitchell will re-sign, and even with a player option on his third contract, we’re talking about a six-year runway. That’s a lot of time to make improvements, and Rome wasn’t built in a day.
As for the timing, in my initial deep dive on the wisdom of such a trade, I myself argued that it would be better to make this trade next summer. That no longer seems to be an option. Ainge seems motivated to make a move now for the reasons just stated, and I’m willing to bet that even if Mitchell opens the season in Utah, some team will eventually talk itself into paying Ainge’s asking price.
For some fans, that would not only be an acceptable result, but maybe even a desired one. To this segment of the fan base, the Knicks would be best served keeping the current roster to start the season. Maybe that team sneaks into the play-in, and between their pick, the Mavs first and another asset, they might even have enough to jump up in the 2023 draft, not into Victor/Scoot territory, but perhaps close.
That is certainly on the table, along with other benefits of playing the long game: keeping RJ’s usage high and giving him the chance to evolve into an All-Star while hoping that one of the other kids emerges in a significant way. I don’t hate this path. In fact, I quite like it, mostly because I’ve never seen it from this organization. The saying applies here too: Rome wasn’t built in a day.
But if you asked me right now to place my chip on red (Mitchell, assuming something below a gross overpay) or black (no Mitchell) with the question being “which path has better odds of turning the Knicks into a contender,” it’s pretty easily the Mitchell one. Getting a star is hard. A star is on the table. They need a star. If they can get one and not completely empty the asset chest, well, perhaps they should do it.
For as complicated as we’re all making this, the simplest solution may just be the correct one.
Fake Trade of the Day
Credit to Larry Israel on Twitter for coming up with a possible construction for a Donovan Mitchell trade that I’d been pondering myself:
I don’t think this specific trade works for a few reasons. Primarily, the Lakers aren’t giving up two future firsts for such a middling return. On the same note, this wouldn’t be enough for Utah, mostly because they’re only getting one of New York’s own picks and it’s in 2025. I think the bare minimum to get a trade done will be three of New York’s own selections, with a preference for picks further down the line (2027 and 2029), at least two of which will have to be fully unprotected.
(If this seems nuts and you’re wondering why Utah wouldn’t just settle for some of the protected picks the Knicks own from other teams, ask yourself: if New York had a chance to trade the Detroit pick, the Dallas pick and the Wizards pick - none of which will ever end up in the top eight due to the respective protections - for an unprotected future first from a franchise with a very poor track record over the last 20 years, would you make the swap? Of course you would, because the mere chance at a pick at the top of the draft is worth the trade off. Danny Ainge wants lottery tickets, not scratch offs. Put another way, think about what the Knicks had to give up on draft night to get three protected picks, two of which they still have: the 11th pick. Granted, it was OKC making the deal, and they have more picks to burn than anyone. Still though, the valuation on the protected firsts vs New York’s own firsts, especially distant ones, is not the same in Ainge’s eyes, and probably not close.)
The other reason I don’t buy this specific trade is because if the Knicks are getting the Lakers involved here, you’d think Cam Reddish would find his way to LA. The rumored trade that fell apart at the deadline would have seen Reddish - a Klutch client, not coincidentally - land in Los Angeles. I’ll get back to him in a bit.
Aside from those differences though, I actually think the notion of a three-team deal in which Russ ends up in Utah (where he would promptly be bought out and allowed to seek employment elsewhere) makes a lot of sense, for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, the Lakers appear to be in a massive jam. Westbrook’s longtime agent, Thad Foucher (who also represents Mitchell Robinson) just broke up with his client in the most public fashion imaginable. The picture Foucher painted to ESPN is one of a stubborn, aging star refusing to adapt to the role he’s being asked to embrace, and who is desperate to get out:
“Now, with a possibility of a fourth trade in four years, the marketplace is telling the Lakers they must add additional value with Russell in any trade scenario. And even then, such a trade may require Russell to immediately move on from the new team via buyout.
My belief is that this type of transaction only serves to diminish Russell's value and his best option is to stay with the Lakers, embrace the starting role and support that Darvin Ham publicly offered.”
It sure seems like whoever Westbrook hires next to rep him will pressure the organization to grant the former MVP’s wishes and push for a trade. LeBron’s apparent iciness towards Russ will do nothing to quell that angst.
The problem is that there are very few teams who can feasibly put together a package for Westbrook’s massive $47 million expiring contract, and those that might be able to don’t have the sort of player or players who would make the Lakers feel comfortable trading away one of their two movable first round picks, let alone both1. The obvious move - Russ and the pick(s) to Brooklyn for Kyrie - doesn’t seem like something the Nets would do if they can’t find a workable trade for KD. If that’s off the table, how desperate does LA get?
Enter the Jazz, who are prioritizing future draft equity with high potential value and are looking to clear long term salary from their books. In Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Malik Beasley, Jordan Clarkson and Patrick Beverly, the Jazz have a bunch of players who could help the Lakers, while Julius Randle, Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose and Cam Reddish are all players who could also potentially make sense for LA.
The basic gist would be as follows:
Like Larry suggests in his proposed deal, the Lakers pick up Fournier2 and Rose, plus Cam Reddish from the Knicks and one of the above-named players from the Jazz. I think Conley is an interesting target, mostly because he’s still good enough to help a team when healthy, but he’s got two years and over $40 million remaining on his contract, and it’s unclear that anyone else in the league would see him as a positive asset.
Westbrook goes to Utah, along with LA’s 2027 first rounder.
New York sends a massive pick package to the Jazz for Mitchell, plus the rights to Rokas Jokubaitis and Deuce McBride, while also taking back Kendrick Nunn from the Lakers so they don’t have to waive him and have that dead money on their books3.
The key to all this working is Reddish. New York seems desperate to move him for value, except the Jazz have no interest in taking on a player so close to restricted free agency. The Lakers, meanwhile, are loath to give up one of those future picks without making it worth it. Here, they not only swap out Russ for several helpful vets, but they get a young player with real upside in the process.
The benefit for the Knicks, ideally, is that they get to keep all of their key young players. If we assume New York gives up three unprotected firsts (or two unprotected firsts plus one with extremely light protections, let’s say top-five) plus three of the protected firsts from other teams plus swap rights on one other draft, and we throw in the LA first, that gets Utah seven firsts and one swap. That should be enough to get it done, even without including one of the high pedigree kids.
Or maybe I’m just nuts. Guess will find out soon enough.
🏀
That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter
LA can trade away their firsts in 2027 and 2029.
Please feel free to sub in Randle for Fournier, although I have my doubts either side is amenable to that.
Recall that the Knicks were rumored to be interested in Nunn last summer.
Love this fake trade scenario with the Lakers and jazz. If we can do a Spida trade without trading any of IQ, Grimes and Obi I'm all in.
Assume for a second that Obi, Grimes rose and Cam all go for Mitchell and we get no other Jazz players back. What exceptions will we have to fill the second team spots and who is out there to fill them. You have previously mentioned Melo. Any other thoughts?