No Extension for IQ

Let's talk about why Immanuel Quickley doesn't have a new contact. Plus, Part II of my NBA season preview.

Good morning. We start today on a down note…

🗣️ News & Notes ✍️

🏀 The deadline came and went, and Immanuel Quickley exits this offseason the same way he came into it: without long term financial security¹.

On the surface, the reason the Knicks didn’t come to an agreement with their super sixth man is the same reason that any other negotiation breaks down, which is that the two sides couldn’t agree on the money.

That’s the what. The more interesting part is the why.

We’ve discussed ad nauseum the very specific needle Leon Rose has been attempting to thread since the day he took the job: building a contender without ever bottoming out. The one benefit he had in this gamble was time. New York was more or less a financial blank slate when he took over, with the closest thing to a cornerstone piece - RJ Barrett - still in the midst of his rookie season.

That was over three and a half years ago. Today, the Knicks are far closer to contention than they were in March of 2020, but they don’t yet have the roster they will if and when they’re a legitimate threat to win it all. As a result, difficult choices still need to be made, and a few of those choices came to a head with Immanuel Quickley’s extension negotiations.

Primarily, the issue starts with how this front office views Immanuel Quickley - not in terms of his ceiling or even his role, but in terms of how he fits into their long term plans. Like everyone else on this roster not named Jalen Brunson, Leon Rose has to consider Quickley the asset as much or more than Quickley the player. Because of that, the money matters.

Here’s why.

The Knicks are currently a team that is trying to win but is not yet a contender. That puts them squarely in the middle, not only of the league, but in what they can do with their wallet.

For a team like the Celtics, blowing past the second apron by acquiring and then extending both Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday is a luxury they have because they already have their contending core. They’ll be hamstrung in the moves they can make, but those constraints are easier to stomach when your team already has its main pieces.

On the other end of the spectrum is a team like the Spurs, who just gave Devin Vassell an awful lot of money. Vassell still has more to prove as an NBA player, but enough of the outline is there to make a big bet. More importantly, San Antonio is so far away from having to worry about second apron concerns that they can hand Vassell a huge deal without much fear of the downside risk.

And then there’s a team like Minnesota, who just paid their impending restricted free agent Jaden McDaniels $27 million a year when he’s arguably done less as a pro than Quickley.

Like New York, they’re also part of the NBA’s juicy middle, so what gives?

Simply put, they have Anthony Edwards, a guy who profiles as a No. 1 option on a contending team. As a result, they don’t have to worry about trading for the guy. That doesn’t mean financial pain isn’t coming, which is why Karl-Anthony Towns might be the most likely star to be traded next July if this version of the Wolves doesn’t rise to contention status. Whether they get a gargantuan return or have to settle for the star-version of the John Collins haul (the result of another non-contender trying to win but needing to avoid the second apron) remains to be seen. But they’ll be able to move KAT, get real stuff back, and alleviate some of their cap woes.

The Knicks are damn good, but don’t have an Ant Edwards on their roster. They have, rather openly, been looking to trade for that person for years now, and when that opportunity comes, they want to be able to present a compelling package.

Which brings us back to Quickley.

IQ is good enough to be considered a cornerstone piece in the right situation, but New York is not that situation. Aside from being arguably their best trade chip, Quick sits squarely behind Brunson in the starting five, and his ceiling as an NBA is player is unfortunately limited by sharing a roster with a better small guard who also operates best with the ball in his hands. If his role was different, we’d be having a very different conversation.

But it isn’t, and we aren’t.

That puts him on the “asset” side of the ledger, which therefor puts Leon Rose in the unenviable position of having to negotiate with Quickley with 1.5 eyes on how desirable his next deal will make him to an opposing front office.

But that’s only part of the story.

The other issue is the timing. As I’ve written about several times this past summer, including a few weeks ago, the Knicks aren’t that far away from the second apron themselves. If they don’t trade for a star before the trade deadline in 2025, they’ll likely have to make some tough decisions - decisions that could involve swapping out veterans getting paid real money for younger and/or future assets that allow them to keep kicking the can down the road and avoiding the league’s harshest financial penalties until they get their contending core in place.

With all that hanging over their heads, the front office saw what Quick’s camp was asking for - I’m guessing something in the Vassell/McDaniels range of five years at something north of $25 million annually - and made a bet.

Their bet, essentially, is that there is less risk involved in letting Quickley potentially get a lucrative offer sheet next summer than signing him to what they see as an unpalatable deal now and having to live with the consequences².

Recent history indicates that it is a wise bet. There was a lot of smoke about teams like the Spurs and Pistons making gargantuan offers to Austin Reaves and Cam Johnson this past summer, but neither ever came to pass. The reality is that even teams in the midst of a rebuild that have money to burn don’t like tying up their cash on an offer sheet that will inevitably be matched.

The more likely route than a team coming forward with a big offer sheet is a sign and trade. In the 2021 and 2022 offseasons, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen and Lonzo Ball were restricted free agents who were signed and traded to different teams, all for between $17 million and $21 million in average annual value. A few years before that, Terry Rozier was sent to Charlotte in a sign and trade for Kemba Walker. Sign and trades have become more difficult with the new CBA, but they are far from an impossibility.

To find the last player who accepted an offer sheet after his team made him an RFA and then declined to match, you have to go back to July of 2017, when Steve Mills inked Tim Hardaway Jr to a deal that was widely panned around the league as a gross overpay. Since then, restricted free agents have signed lucrative offer sheets, but they’ve all been matched by their incumbent teams.

In theory, Quick is betting that at least one team with cap space (or who the Knicks can do business with via sign and trade) will view him as their starting point guard of the future and someone who could be a top-half-of-the-league starter. They already have plenty of evidence to go on, but one storyline worth watching is how much New York’s crowded rotation diminishes Quick’s ability to increase his value in the eyes of prospective suitors. How he follows up on his disappointing 2023 postseason also bears watching.

Whether he’s still on the Knicks by then is another matter altogether. As an impending restricted free agent, Quickley becomes far more tradable this season than he would have been if he’d extended. Without the poison pill provision, Quick’s incoming and outgoing salary will be identical in any trade: just $4.2 million.

A number that low actually makes him tougher to trade by himself, but New York has the benefit of also having Evan Fournier’s expiring contract on the books. Combined, they could take back as much as $28.8 million in salary³ for those two pieces.

Not that we should write IQ’s Knick obituary quite yet. I’d still bet on him being here throughout the season and New York trusting their ability to walk a few tightropes at once come next July.

One thing is for certain after yesterday though: a clean situation got a little messier. How and when it manifests into something else remains to be seen, but the last chapter of Quickley’s Knicks career is far from complete.

🏀 Dreams of Giannis hitting either the trade market or free agent market anytime soon can officially be flushed down the toilet.

Antetokounmpo signed a three-year, $186 million extension with the Bucks that will keep him in Milwaukee for the foreseeable future. Even with a player option, his name won’t come up in any rumors anytime soon.

2023-24 NBA Preview: Part II

In case you missed yesterday, we went through my tiers of the Eastern conference. Today, I tackle the West. Tomorrow I’ll make my final predictions for the ‘23-24 season.

The West

Tier 1 - Ceiling: NBA champ; Floor: first round out

Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns

You read that floor correctly. It isn’t a commentary on the Nuggets, who I wrote earlier this summer had as good a chance at sustained championship-level success as any team since the peak Warriors (or, for that matter, the Suns, who might sport the greatest offense in NBA history).

The West is brutal. Maybe even more brutal than some of the years earlier this century when 50 or near-50 win teams missed the playoffs entirely. For one, the floor is higher. A team with a space alien point-center sent to destroy basketball as we know it could finish dead last in this conference, and the Wemby Spurs should be able to beat any team on any given night. Same goes for the Blazers, Jazz and Rockets, to say nothing of the 11 teams that think they have what it takes to win multiple rounds come April and May.

In this conference, one ill-timed injury or cold spell could relegate even the mighty Nuggets or Suns to a fourth seed or worse. They probably wouldn’t care, and would be favored in the first round regardless, but what if their opponent was the Warriors? Or a healthy Clippers team with James Harden? Or a Lakers squad on a roll? Or Luka in God-mode? Or each other?

In 2015, the defending champion, 55-win Spurs were less than a year removed from one of the greatest Finals performances in history and got ousted in round one by the Clippers…who then got beaten by the Rockets…who were then trounced by the Warriors.

That’s the level of competition out West this season.

So with all due respect to the defending champs and the closest thing we have to a superteam, they should be afraid. Very afraid.

Tier 2 - Ceiling: NBA champ; Floor: play-in

Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers

If you’re keeping track from yesterday, I now have seven teams capable of winning it all - more than in most years. It’s a sign that I’m giving a few teams too much respect, or that parity in the NBA is very, very real.

Of the three, the Clippers are the frauds here, having made it to the West Finals just once in the Kawhi/PG era, and that run was more due to Utah’s implosion than their own strong play. What can I say. There’s a denim jacket hanging in my closet embossed with the logo of the Clips, who I picked to make the Finals last season. Oops.

Golden State and the Lakers both have flaws but their upside is obvious. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they (like the Clippers) have a win-now trade in them before the deadline.

Tier 3 - Ceiling: conference finals; Floor: play-in

Minnesota

Hold that thought…

Tier 4 - Ceiling: conference finals; Floor: miss the play-in

Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, Sacramento, Oklahoma City

I originally had Memphis with Minnesota in the tier above, but then the Steven Adams injury news came down and I docked them a tier. As a result, Minnesota is in a tier by themselves thanks to Anthony Edwards presumed leap into superstardom and generally having more win-now talent then the rest of these teams.

Of the other five, one is going to miss the play-in entirely, and unless one of them can overtake a team from the top six, all five will fall below a top-six seed.

The downside risk for all is fairly obvious. Sacramento doesn’t defend and was incredibly healthy last season, not to mention great in the clutch, which doesn’t usually carry over. Oklahoma City is extremely young and may not be going for it in the same way as these other squads. The Grizzlies are already banged up and will be without Ja Morant for 25 games (at least). The Pelicans are entirely dependent on someone who has played 114 games in four years. Dallas has pinned their hopes on Kyrie Irving.

And yet…things could break just well enough for each of these five that a deep playoff run isn’t out of the question.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2023-24 Western Conference.

Tier 5 - Ceiling: make the play-in; Floor: miss the play-in

Houston

My hot take I don’t have the guts to make is that the Rockets will make the play-in. In any other year, I’d do it. I’d be so bold if it only came down to Houston leapfrogging one of the teams in the tier above. But two? Can’t get there.

Tier 6 - Ceiling: miss the play-in; Floor: worst record in the league

Utah, San Antonio, Portland

In a different year and a different conference, any of these three could make a run at the play-in. Alas…

So with six tiers per conference written in pen, let’s finish off this season preview with some predictions that are 100 percent, no-questions-asked, absolutely, positively destined to be correct.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

1. Relatively speaking, of course.

2. I’ve seen and heard some opinions that there is no such thing as a bad deal for Quickley because he is so good of a player. With respect to that viewpoint, we’re talking about a player who might not start for at least half the teams in the league. The notion that something in the $25-30 million range for that sort of player doesn’t run the risk of becoming an overpay seems a tad presumptuous, especially considering his underwhelming playoff performance. Also, for as much pearl-clutching as has gone on regarding how this might impact the vibes of this season, how would it have gone over in the locker room if Immanuel Quickley - a bench player - was suddenly the highest paid player on the team? Vassell or McDaniels money would have gotten him there.

3. Taking back this much money would put the Knicks into the tax, but they’d be close enough that they could duck it easily enough.