Fake Trades Galore

We keep hearing that the Knicks are up for trading down. So let's look at every possible deal they could pull off.

News & Notes

• According to Stefan Bondy, Mike Woodson recently flew to Louisiana to help train Mitchell Robisnon. Meanwhile, Mitch’s trainer Marcell Scott touted the expansion of Robinson’s game via IG, while noting that the Knicks coaching staff is “very determined to win ASAP.” I should hope so.

• Stan Van Gundy is the new coach of the New Orleans Pelicans, as first reported by Woj. His announcing and Twitter presence will be missed.

• The Knicks got some love (and some hate) in The Athletic’s anonymous agent survey. Wonderboy Alex Kline was referred to as a front office person on the rise, with someone touting his encyclopedic knowledge of the league’s players. On the flip side, both Scott Perry individually and the Knicks as a team were named as the front office person/staff that agents trusted the least.

Tweet of the Day

Matthew Miranda 🇵🇷 @MMiranda613

this look like an appropriate father/son interaction to you?

Ask Macri

Knicks Fandom UK @KnicksFandomUK

@JCMacriNBA People keep saying that it's not going to cost as much to move up to a top three pick this year. In a vacuum, not taking into account who the actual teams in the top three are, what do you think the cost should be for the Knicks to move up?

Before we get to some fake trades where the Knicks move down, a thought this was a good one about possibly moving up.

To be clear: I don’t want to do any of the below trades because all of them involve giving up something that I don’t want to part with. But if the question is what would be a fair value, in this draft, with the seeming lack of desire league-wide to pick in the top three, here are my answers:

First Pick: 8, 27, Mitchell Robinson, and the ‘21 Dallas pick.

I don’t think Minnesota does this because KAT is quite clearly a center, but the value is fair. The only alternative would be to replace Robinson and the Dallas pick with New York’s top three or four protected 2021 first rounder, which would then become unprotected in 2022 (basically the same protections as the pick that the Wolves sent the Warriors in the DLo trade), but I think that’s objectively too much to give (and I’d sooner give up my first born than make that deal).

Second Pick: 8, Mitchell Robinson and Frank Ntilikina.

I think the price would be considerably lower than for the first pick because if the Knicks actually made this deal, the Wolves would know that they’d be doing so for LaMelo Ball and then just draft him themselves to try to extract an additional asset (maybe that’s why the Knicks leaked their interest of both Ball and Wiseman?)

Regardless, I think both teams say no to this, but again, it’s fair.

Third Pick: 8, 27 and Kevin Knox

This gets complicated if Edwards and Ball are off the board, because (my personal feelings about him aside) Wiseman becomes the consensus pick. So I guess Mitch and 8 for Wiseman would then be the move. Either would be objectively fair.

But whereas I’d never consider doing the latter, if Ball was still on the board at 3, I’d at least give the first deal a second thought. New York also owns Charlotte’s 2021 first, so perhaps that goes instead of 27.

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Fake Trades Galore

OK let’s cut the bullshit.

We know the Knicks are at least intrigued by the idea of trading down. How do we know this? A few reasons:

• As previously reported, I’ve heard they’re comfortable with a number of players they project to go in the 15-22 range.

• Marc Berman has said they’re open to trading down, and I’ve heard that he’s as plugged in as anyone with this new front office (which of course doesn’t mean that you should take his - or anyone’s - reporting as gospel, but still…)

• Common sense dictates as much.

On this last point, we’re all pretty sure that Edwards, Wiseman, Ball, Deni and Obi will be gone by eight. After that, beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder.

(This is where the Killian Hayes stans start screaming obscenities at clouds, but Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman has reported that league-wide interest in him simply isn’t anywhere close to Draft Twitter’s takes. Is this just a matter of everyone trying to outwit everyone else with false info? Maybe, but that would seem to be quite the elaborate ruse.)

What we’re left with is a group of a dozen or so prospects that have a massive amount of fluctuation in where they could (and arguably should) get drafted. Is Isaac Okoro the best fit for the Hawks at 6, or would it shock you if he slipped out of the top 10? Tyrese Maxey is a Kentucky guard, which means he is obviously destined for greatness, and yet he might last to the back half of the first round. Who the hell knows what to make of Cole Anthony’s draft stock? Or RJ Hampton’s? Or Tyrell Terry’s? And what about lower profile guys like Aaron Nesmith, Precious Achiuwa, Saddiq Bey and Jalen Smith? Where is Poku? Who is Poku? Why is Poku?

Complicating all this is the fact that teams at the top of the draft are seemingly trying to get out of their draft spots, with an agent recently telling The Athletic that he’s “never heard, and they’re not going to say this, less enthusiasm for teams that have high picks.” Someone else noted that he thought the top “seven or eight teams would trade their pick if they could.” More than half of the agents polled also thought Golden State in particular would wind up trading their pick when all was said and done.

With this as the backdrop, I thought it might be wise to go through each team that holds the picks between 9 and 26, figure out the best realistic trade down possibility for each one, and decide whether it’s likley to happy.

(Yes, I’ve already come up with fake trade-down scenarios for the Suns, Kings, Pelicans, Celtics and Magic, but most of those didn’t fall into the category of deals I’ve heard the Knicks are looking at; namely, improving the ever-popular “future asset” war chest with picks or players on rookie deals, so I’ll be re-doing them)

Let’s get right to it, with the presumption for each of these being that the Knicks would swap the 8th pick with the given selection, and the other team would send something else back for their trouble.

9th pick - Washington Wizards

Extra Asset: Jerome Robinson

Likelihood: Low

I don’t think Washington would give up Troy Brown just to move up one spot, and if the Knicks really liked Robinson, they could have had him in the Marcus Morris deal last season.

10th pick - Phoenix Suns

Extra Asset: Future 1st Rounder - T10 Protected in 2021 (Dallas’ 2021 1st to PHX if conveyed); T10 Protected in 2022 (Dallas’ 2023 1st to PHX if conveyed); if not conveyed by 2022, converts to ‘23 & ‘24 seconds

Likelihood: Low

All indications are that Phoenix wants to win next year, to the point that they’ve been mentioned as a not-so-under-the-radar Chris Paul destination (BTW, if the Suns needed to salary dump the final two years of Ricky Rubio’s salary, sign me up please).

If they were absolutely in love with someone available at 8, I could see them swinging a deal here. I just don’t know who that would be, especially when their starting lineup seems to be set. Maybe they really are in love with Kira Lewis, and the Knicks bluff them into thinking they’d take him? Who knows. But the opportunity to get a better pick in either next year’s draft or in the future would be more than worth it to me.

11th pick - San Antonio Spurs

Extra Asset: Derrick White (with 27th pick going to San Antonio)

Likelihood: Low

This seems like selling super low on White, especially after he ripped off 20 points in four of his seven games in the bubble.

But he’s extension eligible this offseason, and there’s a chance San Antonio may not want to invest more than a quarter of their salary cap (Dejounte Murray’s four year, $64 million extension kicks in next season) in a backcourt that doesn’t contain anyone with an All-Star upside.

Thibs, meanwhile, would fall in love with White instantly, and he continues to make steady progress as a shooter.

I’d also happily do the same trade with Lonnie Walker or Keldon Johnson in White’s place, but I have to imagine they’re even more unrealistic.

12th pick - Sacramento Kings

Extra Asset: Marvin Bagley (with New York sending back…)

Likelihood: Low

What would Leon Rose need to send to Sacramento to get the Kings to give up on the guy they passed up Luka for?

(BTW, the only reason I think this has a prayer of happening is because the front office that drafted Bagley is gone, but the guy running the Kings comes from Houston, so it’s not like he’s going to get hoodwinked.)

Kevin Knox isn’t nearly enough. I wouldn’t send Mitch, who may not have Bagley’s ceiling, but I’m more confident in his game continuing to translate. Would Sacramento take Knox and the ‘21 Dallas pick? I seriously doubt it. Let’s move on.

13th pick - New Orleans Pelicans

Extra Asset: Los Angeles Lakers 2022 1st rounder

Likelihood: Moderate

At some point, New Orleans has to start cashing in their chips, as the clock ticks faster in the NBA these days than ever before. Ingram’s extension starts next year, with Lonzo Ball’s following soon after. If they finally trade Jrue Holiday, they’ll have additional assets coming in from that deal as well, so it makes the 2022 Lakers pick all the more expendable.

LA’s picks further down the line are the real gems of the AD trade anyway, although I suppose there’s a world where both LeBron and AD decide to bolt a year from now. That slim possibility would be part of the calculation for Leon Rose here, but worst case scenario, you’re picking up a first rounder after LeBron’s 19th NBA season - one in which he’s probably rested liberally throughout.

This would also make Anthony Davis’ possible 2021 free agency 875% more interesting.

14th pick - Boston Celtics

Extra Asset: Romeo Langford & 30 (with NY sending back 38)

Likelihood: Moderate

I proposed 8 for 14, 26 and 30 a few months ago, which I admitted at the time was probably an overpay for Boston. Wasserman pitched 8 for 14, 26 and Tremont Waters today, but I don’t see that as being enough.

8 for 14, Langford and 30 (with 38 going to Boston) is interesting. Langford had an injury plagued rookie year, but was the 14th pick a year ago, and it’s not like we haven’t seen guys pop off as sophomores after an anonymous first year.

I originally wrote that this wouldn’t be enough to move down, but the more I study this draft, the less convinced I am that the Knicks value 8 all that much more than 14. Plus, there are other ways to even out this deal. There’s so many permutations that I’d bet this is the team Rose swings a deal with before it’s all over.

15th pick - Orlando Magic

Extra Asset: Future First Rounder - T4 Protected in 2021 (Dallas 2021 1st to ORL if conveyed); T4 Protected in 2022 (Dallas 2023 1st to ORL if conveyed); if not conveyed by 2022, converts to ‘23 & ‘24 seconds

Likelihood: Low

I pitched something like this on Twitter a few weekends ago and people reacted like I’d just proposed giving up RJ Barrett for cash considerations.

I don’t get it. I know Jeremy and I just did a whole podcast on fake trades to help the Mavs’ Western Conference opponents, and while it was a smashing good time, the notion that the Mavs finish outside the dozen best records in the league, let alone in the lottery, is lunacy.

Luka, in case you haven’t noticed, has just been installed as the odds on favorite for the 2021-22 MVP. Dallas also has the 6th best title odds in the West, a bet that came out after the KP surgery announcement.

So let’s be generous and say they finish with the 20th pick next year (I think there’s better odds they finish with the 30th pick, but I digress…). Orlando, meanwhile, is going to be battling it out with Washington, Chicago and Atlanta for the 8th seed.

Let’s say, worst case scenario (for this trade at least) Orlando get’s the 8th seed. That means you’ve just moved down seven spots this year to move up five spots in a much better draft next year. And that’s the low end outcome for New York, as the Mavs getting the 25th pick and Orlando getting the 10th wouldn’t shock anyone.

That’s why I think Orlando says no to this deal. But if they were up for it? In a heartbeat, yes.

16th pick - Portland Trail Blazers

Extra Asset: Anfernee Simons

Likelihood: Moderate

Wass pitched this swap for the Pistons in his mock draft today, and I’m 1000% stealing it for the Knicks.

Simons is legit. He skipped college in favor of IMG Academy and the Blazers have been bringing him along slowly over the last two seasons since taking him 24th in 2018. Coming off an impressive stint in Vegas that saw him make All-Summer League 2nd Team despite playing just three games, he came out hot this year, averaging 12 points on 50/40/77 splits over the first 10 games.

The rest of his season was inconsistent, to put it politely, but Portland might not have been the best situation for a young player who needed room to grow. Would New York be any better? Given the likelihood of a good player still being available at 16, I’d pull the trigger to try and find out.

17th pick - Minnesota Timberwolves

Extra Assets: Josh Okokie and the 33rd pick (38th pick to Minnesota)

Likelihood: Low

I don’t love this for New York, and it’s not because I don’t like Okogie, who Thibs coached as a rookie and has a serious defensive presence when he’s on the court.

The issue is that Okogie can’t shoot. Like, at all. He’s made 101 threes in 136 games since being drafted, but his percentage went down on lower volume last season. The fit just isn’t great.

That said, there is another deal here - one that I don’t think Minnesota considers but it wouldn’t hurt to ask:

New York gets: 17th pick, 33rd pick, Jarrett Culver, James Johnson

Minnesota gets: 8th pick, 27th pick, 2021 Dallas 1st (T4 Protected), Julius Randle

This obviously hinges on what both teams think of Culver, and to a lesser extent who’s still available at 17.

On the surface, it looks like an overpay for the Knicks. We might all be sick of Randle, but he’s still a helpful player in the right situation, and Towns’ range will minimize the damage caused by Julius’ lack thereof.

It’s also quite clear from the scuttlebutt (drink!) around the league that Minnesota isn’t enamored with the 1st overall pick. This trade would allow them to either deal the first pick for a star(ish) level player and still have a top ten selection, or package 1 and 8 for someone better (how quickly do the Wizards hang up if offered 1, 8, 27, and Malik Beasley in a sign and trade?)

Lastly, the Wolves get a first back for next year after sending theirs away in the DLo trade. It’s not a bad deal.

So why would the Knicks do it? For one, it wipes away Randle’s $4 million guarantee for 2021-22. So there’s that. Plus, there’s a real chance that the guy New York really wants will still be there at 17. If we assume that after the top five, Hayes, Okongwu, Okoro, Vassell, Haliburton, Kira, Nesmith, Precious Achiuwa and Patrick Williams all go before 17, that means one of Tyrese Maxey (my guess as to who they want) Tyrell Terry or RJ Hampton will be there, to say nothing of Josh Green, Jalen Smith, Saddiq Bey, Poku, and yes, Cole Anthony.

If the Knicks don’t feel like the downgrade from 8 to 17 is all that severe, they’re essentially swapping a likely pick in the 20’s next year for the 6th overall pick last year (plus 27 for 33, which maybe wouldn’t even be necessary). I’ve said repeatedly that the team’s focus is on improving its possibilities for next year’s draft, but if they can turn Culver into a legitimately interesting pro, he’d be one hell of a trade asset in his own right.

There’s a lot of moving parts here which always makes a deal tough, but the Wolves want to win now, and this trade helps them do that. The Knicks, meanwhile, get a pretty substantial lottery ticket and a draftee they still like. I’d kick the tires.

Let’s go through the next few a little faster, as I don’t think they’ll go lower than 22, and a few of the ones before that are out for other reasons…

18th pick - Dallas Mavericks - Nada.

19th pick - Brooklyn Nets - Ditto.

20th pick - Miami Heat - Double Ditto.

21st pick - Philadelphia 76ers - 8 and 38 for 21, 34, Matisse Thybulle and the Knicks own 2021 second rounder has a nice ring to it.

22nd pick - Denver Nuggets - Even if 22 really is New York’s low end, I don’t think Denver’s unprotected 2021 pick would move the needle, as I could see the Nuggets finishing with the best record in the league next year if they make a big trade (and they have the pieces to do it).

23rd pick - Utah Jazz - Don’t see a deal here.

24th pick - Milwaukee Bucks - Here either.

25th pick - Oklahoma City Thunder - Just for shit’s and giggles, how good do you think Houston will be next year? Because the Thunder own the best two of their own 2021 first, the Rockets 2021 first (protected 1-4) and Miami’s 2021 first. I’m assuming Miami gets a little better and that’s the worst of the three. But Houston? Would it shock you if they finished 7th or 8th in the West? Worse even?

8 to 25 would be a steep drop off for such uncertainty, but what about 25, the middle of those three 2021 picks, Hamidou Diallo, and one of the 8,000 future firsts OKC has coming to them from the Clippers, Rockets or Heat? Brock Aller is the master of pick protections, so perhaps they could get creative with giving New York some control over when this thing conveyed.

26th pick - Boston Celtics - Covered them above.

If I had to bet on my top three most likely trade partners out of these, I’d go Boston one, Minnesota a close second, and Philly a distant third. In the end, my gut feeling is that New York is far more likely to trade down than up, but nothing would shock me come draft night.

Four weeks and counting…

That’s it! See everyone tomorrow for the Friday edition and the rest of your mailbag answers. #BlackLivesMatter #VOTE